Sunday afternoon, the Milwaukee Bucks did not put on a confidence-inspiring performance against the Knicks by losing 140-106. While they remain just a game back of the four-seed at 20-17, their 0-8 showing versus the East elite of Cleveland, Boston and New York, has become a ubiquitous caveat regarding Milwaukee’s title potential.
Dec 17, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34), guard Damian Lillard (0) and center Brook Lopez (11) celebrate after winning the Emirates NBA Cup championship game against the Oklahoma City Thunder at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images
In media-narrative-world, losing in such fashion to the Knicks undid some of the positive momentum the Bucks regained on their three-game win streak coming into Sunday. And it provides ample fodder for real concerns.
But if they make a move at the trade deadline, a significant one, the roster could receive a major boost once that transaction dust has settled.
Might this team be viewed quite differently after the February 6 deadline has passed?
Nov 8, 2024; New York, New York, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) drives to the basket against New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) and forwards OG Anunoby (8) and Mikal Bridges (25) during the first quarter at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Off Horrendous Loss to New York Knicks, Milwaukee Bucks Could Appreciate in Value If They Get Giannis Some Help
Taking a peek at betting markets can provide useful data simply to gauge the intersection of expert and public perception surrounding certain teams and players.
Before tipoff Sunday, the best price for the Bucks to win the conference finals was +1200, giving them an implied probability of 7.69%. Afterward, it jumped to +1500, or 6.25%.
Clearly the Bucks are a team in need of help, whether that comes from internal transformation or acquiring outside talent, and the idea is not that they have a good shot to win the East. Rather, given the longer odds, it could be intriguing to see how those odds could change were Milwaukee to make a splash.
Apr 16, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) drives against Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton (22) in the second half during game one of the 2023 NBA Playoffs at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports
Senior NBA writer and host of the Buckets Podcast, Matt Moore of the Action Network had this to say on the show:
“I am very keen to hear about trying to piece together rumors involving the Milwaukee Bucks because I think that a substantial change in their structure is possible, and so it would potentially make them a better team long-term and come playoff time.”
Well, fans would certainly hope a trade would improve this squad in a major way. What would a +1500 ticket look like six weeks from now if, say, the Bucks got a Jimmy Butler, or a Bradley Beal, even a Cam Johnson or an RJ Barrett? What would the odds be then? Obviously there would be a transition period, but if they played really good basketball in the weeks post-trade, the Bucks might win back serious consideration–not just an honorable mention as a franchise on the fringe– as a title-contending team.
Moore clarified that there is no reason to invest in a team (or as fans, to get too hopeful) based on the latest trade rumors or projections, but it is a factor to keep in mind as the deadline approaches.
In a Perfect World
Mar 28, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) and guard Damian Lillard (0) head to the bench on a timer out against the New Orleans Pelicans during the second half at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
If the Bucks don’t do anything before the deadline, Moore allowed that “the results could be disastrous” for bettors–essentially, they would be stuck with a dead bet. This observation is also interesting in suggesting, in at least one analyst’s opinion, that Milwaukee is not a likely threat as constructed. Despite Doc Rivers’ confidence, after the Knicks beatdown many fans agree.
Fellow Action Network writer Jim Turvey did offer the opposing viewpoint that the Giannis-era Bucks have already won a title, proving their “ceiling” as a team. Moore conceded that Milwaukee is still “finals capable” simply because of Giannis’ dominance and the exhaustion of dealing with him over a seven-game series.
This would only work, though, “if everything clicks just right.” Other than the in-season tournament run and a championship that doesn’t even count toward their record, there just hasn’t been enough to indicate that the team will get there with the guys they have.
